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According to The Bookseller (http://www.thebookseller.com/news/101600-iphone-challenge-to-kindle-as-book-apps-surge.html) the iPhone may take market share from the Amazon Kindle, following an explosion in the supply of book apps last month.
The Bookseller quotes a a report by San Francisco-based mobile application analytics company Flurry.
The Flurry report, «Flurry Smartphone Industry Pulse, October 2009», Posted by Peter Farago (http://blog.flurry.com/bid/27796/Flurry-Smartphone-Industry-Pulse-October-2009), reveals that he number of book apps supplied to the iPhone App Store overtook the number of games apps for the first time in September.
After Playing Games, iPhone Gets Serious about Books
According to Flurry, «The iPhone is a versatile multi-media device that has already significantly impacted the business models of music, games and other Media & Entertainment industry categories. In particular, since Apple launched the App Store in July 2008, game developers have flocked to the iPhone, creating an alternative for consumers to the leading handheld gaming platform, Nintendo DS.»
So, to predict which sector of Media & Entertainment iPhone might next impact, Flurry researched the number of applications released to the App Store, by category, since its inception. From August 2008 to August 2009, more apps were released in the Games category than any other. This September, however, «we observed another category, Books, usurping Games for the first time ever. To illustrate the surge in the supply of books to the App Store, the chart below compares the number of books and games released to the App Store per month, over the last four months, as a percentage of all released applications.»
In October, one out of every five new apps launching in the iPhone has been a book. Publishers of all kinds, from small ones like Your Mobile Apps to mega-publishers like Softbank, are porting existing IP into the App Store at record rates. (bold highlight mine)
In its August Pulse report, Flurry observed that during the month of August 1% of the entire U.S. population was already reading a book on the iPhone. Now, with books shipping in droves, we are seeing the supply-side explode.
The sharp rise in eBook activity on the iPhone indicates that «Apple is positioned take market share from the Amazon Kindle as it did from the Nintendo DS. Despite the smaller form factor of the display, we predict that the iPhone will be a significant player in the book category of the Media & Entertainment space. Further, with Apple working on a larger tablet form factor, running on the iPhone OS, we believe Jeff Bezos and team will face significant competition», Flurry reported.
There is another interesting point in the report, related with consumer loyalty.
Addicted to iPhone Apps? There's an App for That.
In its August Pulse report, Flurry reviewed consumer loyalty by looking at how long and how frequently consumers used their downloaded applications.
This time around, we're escalating the conversation from retention to outright addiction. The chart below depicts growth of what the report call the "Addict" segment, «consumers that use an application more than 100 times per month, or more than three times each day of the month. These are the most active users Flurry tracks, and they fire up their applications more than 10 times more often than the average user, who access their applications around 8 times per month.»
In July, Flurry rebealed that more than 3 million people read usually on the iPhone.
Now, the graph above shows significant growth in the Addict segment over the past six months.
In September, 1.2% of the more than 40 million users Flurry tracked, or roughly one half of a million, used apps more than 100 times per month. There is no denying the level of addiction iPhone users are demonstrating around app usage, says the report.
Last week Benedicte Page wrote at The Bookseller a piece, “Move quick on apps or lose out, warning to publishers (http://www.thebookseller.com/news/101468-move-quick-on-apps-or-lose-out-warning-to-publishers.html) where revealed that slow-moving publishers could be left out of the "explosion" in demand for the creation of book applications for the Apple iPhone and iPod Touch. Adam Martin, head of the interactive department at United Agents, said apps were a "game-changer" for authors and publishers. He warned that publishers needed to move "within the next six months". "If they are slow, they may get left out," he said.
(The data in this report is computed from a sample size of over 2,500 applications, 40 million consumers and 4 platforms: Apple (iPhone and iPod Touch), Blackberry, JavaME and Google Android.)
However, «while it might be true that the number of Book apps is growing at a faster rate, Games continue to dominate the list of popular U.S. iTunes Apps. Games accounted for about a fifth of all iTunes apps over the past week, but the category continued to have a disproportionate share of the Top 100 charts, accounting for 52% of the Top Grossing, 56% of the Top Paid, and 50% of the Top Free apps», says Ben Lorica from O’Reilly – “Games Top the Charts in the iPhone and Android App Markets” (http://radar.oreilly.com/2009/11/games-top-the-charts-iphone-android-markets.html):

Lorica emphasizes that «Since most Book apps are actually individual e-books, the Gaming category would have a hard time keeping up with the ever increasing number of Books. Once publishers figured out how to turn their titles into iPhone apps, the number of Book apps started growing faster than Games. Nevertheless Games continue to rule the Top 100 charts»
On the other hand, David Coursey, from PC World, says that «just because developers are creating book applications for iPhone does not mean Apple's handset threatens Amazon's Kindle or B&N's Nook e-readers.»
· At the very least, there is the issue that books are easy to port to the iPhone when compared to the difficulty of developing games. It is no surprise that there would be more books developed, provided developers can make money doing so;
· «I have already downloaded (and paid for) several iPhone books, but they are all reference material. Not things that I would spend a long time reading in a single sitting (…) Because of its small screen, I cannot imagine reading hundreds of pages on an iPhone, something the Nook and Kindle make quite pleasant.»
· That is a very different market and use model than what the Nook, Kindle, and (perhaps) the widely rumored Apple tablet address: «iPhone books fulfill a different purpose, I think, than books on the dedicated e-reader devices. If I were Amazon or Barnes & Noble, I would be much more worried about the other and emerging e-reader companies that I would be about the iPhone.»
John Herrman from Gizmodo, in his piece “iPhone Ebooks: The New Fart Apps” (http://gizmodo.com/5395396/iphone-ebooks-the-new-fart-apps ) sems to agree: « the data shows a clear rise in ebook apps over the last few months, such that they account for a staggering number of the new apps showing up in the store. It's true! (…) But here's the thing: this is purely a measure of how many new apps there are, not how well they're doing. But still, why such a huge uptick? Let's do a little experiment:
Pick your favorite public domain book. No, scratch that, pick your least favorite public domain book—something you had to read back in freshman year of college, and that you immediately and angrily sold back to the campus bookstore. Now, search for it in the App Store. Here's our answer:
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«Treasure Island, a free, public domain book, is available for purchase as a standalone app from over a dozen different developers, in all kinds of containers, at all kinds of prices. And why not! the content is free, so once developer has designed an ebook app container, he can just paste any public domain etext in there and throw it into the App Store. I have no idea if these things sell, but to be honest, they wouldn't have to do very well to make money for their developers—the investment is minimal.»
His conclusion: « Even more to the point, if the iPhone really starts to pose a threat to tradition ereaders, it won't be evident in stats like this—it'll be through increased book downloads in all-in-one ereader apps, like Amazon's Kindle, B&N's Reader and unaffiliated apps like eReader and Stanza. That's a real possibility, but for now, we should call this rapid explosion of redundant, overpriced, exploitative apps like we see it.» (my bold emphasis)
However, as Nicholas Clee points (“IPhone ebook apps proliferate”: http://bookbrunch.co.uk/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=IPhone-ebook-apps-proliferate.html&Itemid=71 ): «the problem remains: while reading devices cost $200 or more, and while they perform a single function, they will reach only a limited audience.»
We must be caucious interpretating the “proliferation” of ebook apps for the iPhone. We know almost nothing about the presence of the last titles under copyright. More: what about the reading practices of the iPhone users? That’s an essential point in thinking about the conundrum of the book for tomorrow.